http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/04/18/finding-the-truth-in-finnish-election-result/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=thesource sanoi:
Searching for the Truth in Finnish Election Result
By Arild Moen
Since the True Finns Party’s historic election result in Finland’s general election on Sunday, a range of Facebook groups have popped up with people expressing their dissatisfaction.
The “No True Finns for Finland” group has so far gathered 49,000 likes, and another called “Election Disappointment” has some 20,000. This compares with only 10,000 likes for the True Finns’ own Facebook page.
Though many Finns are unhappy, they will have to accept their country’s political landscape has changed utterly.
The True Finns’ “victory” was historic in that a political party in Finland has never managed to increase their representation by so much. The party won an additional 34 seats, taking their total to 39, just in a four-year parliamentary period.
This has all happened very quickly, where did they come from?
The True Finns—who are against bailouts for deeply indebted euro-zone countries—won 19% of the vote, adding to the probability that the party could be part of Finland’s new coalition government.
The reasons behind the party’s dramatic increase from the 4.1% they received in the last election in 2007, will most certainly be pondered and discussed in the weeks ahead.
Could it be that some of the 43% of Finns who resisted Finland’s EU-membership 17 years ago supported the True Finns? Or maybe, as some claim, political power in Finland for too long has ignored the opinions of ordinary people living in districts outside the Helsinki greater region, prompting a surge in support for a populist party such as the True Finns.
The conservative National Coalition Party, which has been in government since the 2007 election, won 20.4% of the votes, making it the biggest party in Finland. The opposition Social Democratic Party, which also opposes further bailouts unless private investors and bankers are forced to take financial losses, is the second largest party slightly ahead of the True Finns, with 19.1% of votes.
According to Timo Soini, leader of the True Finns, this election result means that bailouts for troubled EU-countries will have to be renegotiated.
But first, talks to form Finland’s new government will have to take place.
“This is not rocket science, politics is about making compromises,” Mr. Soini said.
The strong electoral showing by the euro-skeptic True Finns weighed heavily on the euro currency and government debt markets Monday. Finland is the only euro-zone member reserving the right to seek parliamentary approval for a bailout.
However, the success of euro-skeptic True Finns does not necessarily mean that the Portuguese bailout will be opposed by Finland.
Four parties—the National Coalition Party, the Centre Party, the Greens, and the Swedish Peoples’ Party—have said they would support the Portuguese bailout. Together they have 98 seats out of a total of 200. An ordinary majority of more than 50% of parliamentary votes would be sufficient for Finland to approve the bailout.
Against this background, the Social Democratic Party—which won 42 seats—holds the key. The SDP has never really said it is against the Portuguese bailout. It said it would oppose further bailouts unless private investors and bankers are forced to take financial losses.
“I would assume that with the right nuances, the Social Democrats would have no problems in accepting bailouts for Portugal,” a person close to coalition preparations, who asked not to be named, said.
With the SDP’s support, there would be a 70% majority, or 140 seats out of 200, in parliament allowing Finland to go on with plans to contribute with guarantees to Portugal’s bailout.
It seems trading in euro-zone bonds and the euro could be volatile until Finland’s new parliament convenes for its first ordinary session on April 28.
