HUOM! !!!!! Ukrainan sota 2022 !!!!!

GAZOZ.FI
10% ALENNUS KOODILLA PAKKOTOISTO
Ottakaa muuten lukuun kahvikupposen/heradrinkin kera: Aikamoinen fsb raportti, käännetty lontooks:


View: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937?s=20&t=oPZZPoN99yjCCwr_Y9-x0Q


🧵My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

i will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
"I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.

All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.

For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) –


So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,
https://twitter.com/igorsushko


otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?


Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.


Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,


then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?


If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko


To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.


There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko


2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos. These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.



With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!


They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.



But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko


Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.


Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.



Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time



Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it. (BREAK FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE POSTING TRANSLATION IN A BIT)


(THIS UPCOMING 2nd HALF IS ARGUABLY MORE INTERESTING AND ENDS WITH A PLEASANT SURPRISE) "100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity.


Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things...


From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.


The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.





What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention


and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria.



This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away.





Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.




I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.


Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.



Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K.


They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.




Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.


As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.



https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.


Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….


Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.


Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine. Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.

With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.


We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.


And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.




To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.


Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.



Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him? ( END OF TRANSLATION )
 
Mikähän tarve ihmisillä on tyhjentää vaatekaapit hätää kärsiville?

Varmasti on jonkin verran tarvetta mutta Ukrainassakin ollut talvi ja siellä kyllä ihmisillä vaatteita ja harvempi on lennosta lähtenyt karkuun.
Edelleen koittavat ihmiset työntää niitä vaatteita sinne vaikka monessa paikassa sanotaan että on kuin kaatopaikalla rajaseutu kun vaatteita jokapaikassa.
 
mikasa90 sanoi:
Ottakaa muuten lukuun kahvikupposen/heradrinkin kera: Aikamoinen fsb raportti, käännetty lontooks:


View: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937?s=20&t=oPZZPoN99yjCCwr_Y9-x0Q


🧵My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

i will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
"I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.

All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.

For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) –


So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,
https://twitter.com/igorsushko


otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?


Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.


Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,


then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?


If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko


To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.


There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko


2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos. These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.



With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!


They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.



But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko


Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.


Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.



Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time



Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it. (BREAK FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE POSTING TRANSLATION IN A BIT)


(THIS UPCOMING 2nd HALF IS ARGUABLY MORE INTERESTING AND ENDS WITH A PLEASANT SURPRISE) "100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity.


Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things...


From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.


The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.





What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention


and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria.



This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away.





Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.




I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.


Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.



Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K.


They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.




Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.


As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.



https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.


Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….


Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.


Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine. Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.

With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.


We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.


And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.




To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.


Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.



Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him? ( END OF TRANSLATION )
Click to expand...

Mielenkiintoista jos on aitoa tavaraa. Tämä pisti silmään

Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
Click to expand...
 
Suntsu sanoi:
Kyllä siellä siperiassa on tilaa, ensin vähän pamppua ja sitten leirille siperiaan. Tervettä työntekoa ja raitista ulkoilmaa tarjolla.
Click to expand...
Alkavat jossain kohtaa pistämään hanttiin.
 
En minäkään USKO että venäjä hyökkää suomeen lähipäivinä mutta harva uskoi että venäjä hyökkäisi ukrainaan. Jossitteluksi menee mutta jos nyt vaikka kiina hyökkäisi Intiaan jostain syystä, venäjän tukemana ja jenkitkin sekaantuvat asiaan niin venäjä voisi ottaa suomen haltuun koska maailman silmät ovat muualla. Sekin on sairasta että meidän pitää, ja muidenkin pitää, laittaa valtavia summia puolustukseen vain ja ainoastaan venäjän takia. Sekin olen miettinyt että ymmärtääkseni Trump taisi olla jättämässä Naton jos nyt vähän kärjistän. Se olisi selvä merkki että euroopan konfliktit eivät välttämättä kiinnosta ja venäjällä olisi yksi vihollinen vähemmän.
 
En usko, että kesäkuuhun asti kestää tää hallinto - alkaa tulemaan sisäistä kiehuntaa vähän isommin. Johan siellä lakkoillaankin, kun palkkoja ei pystytä maksamaan. Sitten kaupan hyllyt tyhjenee ja nälkäistä nuorempaa polvea alkaa kyrsiä. Kyllä se tietoisuuski leviää, että mistä on kyse.
 
doownek sanoi:
Mikähän tarve ihmisillä on tyhjentää vaatekaapit hätää kärsiville?

Varmasti on jonkin verran tarvetta mutta Ukrainassakin ollut talvi ja siellä kyllä ihmisillä vaatteita ja harvempi on lennosta lähtenyt karkuun.
Edelleen koittavat ihmiset työntää niitä vaatteita sinne vaikka monessa paikassa sanotaan että on kuin kaatopaikalla rajaseutu kun vaatteita jokapaikassa.
Click to expand...
Tyynylinna.
 
Mikähän se Putinin plan A ois tällä hetkellä.

Nehän joutuisi koko maan miehittämään loputtomaksi ajaksi vaikka saisivatkin nyt nuijittua ne tarpeeksi sileäksi.
 
mikasa90 sanoi:
Ottakaa muuten lukuun kahvikupposen/heradrinkin kera: Aikamoinen fsb raportti, käännetty lontooks:


View: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937?s=20&t=oPZZPoN99yjCCwr_Y9-x0Q


🧵My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

i will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
"I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.

The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.

All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.

For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) –


So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia,
https://twitter.com/igorsushko


otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?


Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.


Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country,


then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?


If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko


To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.


There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko


2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.


https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos. These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.



With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!


They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000.



But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko


Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine.


Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success.



Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time



Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko

By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it. (BREAK FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE POSTING TRANSLATION IN A BIT)


(THIS UPCOMING 2nd HALF IS ARGUABLY MORE INTERESTING AND ENDS WITH A PLEASANT SURPRISE) "100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity.


Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things...


From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.


The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.





What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention


and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria.



This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away.





Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.




I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.


Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.



Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K.


They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.




Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s.


As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.



https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.


Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come….


Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.


Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine. Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.

With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation.


We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.


And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.




To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world. First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button.


Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko

Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity.



Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him? ( END OF TRANSLATION )
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Ei oo hääviä. Voi siellä melko moni viettää unettomia öitä tämän operaation takia. Kunniallinen perääntyminen lienee jo mahdotonta, ja lopputulos tulee olemaan melkoinen katastrofi "voitti" venäjä tämän tai ei. Pakotteet tulee potkimaan kovaa lopputuloksesta riippumatta. Mitä olette mieltä, onko paluuta enää vanhaan "normaaliin" aikaan venäjällä? Varmasti mielenosoitukset alkaa lisääntyä lähitulevaisuudessa. Eikai niitä kaikkia ihmisiä pidättääkään voi, saatika pitää vangittuina. Romahtaa sisältäpäin koko järjestelmä
 
-kake- sanoi:
Mikähän se Putinin plan A ois tällä hetkellä.

Nehän joutuisi koko maan miehittämään loputtomaksi ajaksi vaikka saisivatkin nyt nuijittua ne tarpeeksi sileäksi.
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Olen aika varma ettei heillä itselläänkään ole mitään käryä miten nyt pitäisi toimia.
Ainoa oikea toimenpide olisi kerätä romut ja perääntyä hallitusti omille maille ja tuumia että ei se me oltu ja sitä paitsi kaikki oli jo valmiiksi paskana.
Mutta eihän tätä voi tehdä koska se kasvojen menetys jne. Sitten likasankokin jäisi yksin ja johonkin meidän on vähän kostonhimoa purettava niin mikäs sen parempi kuin valkovenäjä, putlerikin voi syyttää heitä kun ei tullutkaan jeesaamaan.
 
Bådieinari sanoi:
En minäkään USKO että venäjä hyökkää suomeen lähipäivinä mutta harva uskoi että venäjä hyökkäisi ukrainaan. Jossitteluksi menee mutta jos nyt vaikka kiina hyökkäisi Intiaan jostain syystä, venäjän tukemana ja jenkitkin sekaantuvat asiaan niin venäjä voisi ottaa suomen haltuun koska maailman silmät ovat muualla. Sekin on sairasta että meidän pitää, ja muidenkin pitää, laittaa valtavia summia puolustukseen vain ja ainoastaan venäjän takia. Sekin olen miettinyt että ymmärtääkseni Trump taisi olla jättämässä Naton jos nyt vähän kärjistän. Se olisi selvä merkki että euroopan konfliktit eivät välttämättä kiinnosta ja venäjällä olisi yksi vihollinen vähemmän.
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Ottaisi eka sen Ukrainan ja katsoo sen jälkeen että vieläkö on kalusto, rahaa ja intoa lähteä Suomi+ruotsi sotaan..
 
mikasa90 sanoi:

View: https://twitter.com/PMeemit/status/1500473164928802820?s=20&t=EP-8tLorRvLoZP1J18o7TA
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Hyviä kommenttejakin. Mm.
08195740-4C7E-45DE-9A04-F91D61EC10FD.jpeg
 
doownek sanoi:
Olen aika varma ettei heillä itselläänkään ole mitään käryä miten nyt pitäisi toimia.
Ainoa oikea toimenpide olisi kerätä romut ja perääntyä hallitusti omille maille ja tuumia että ei se me oltu ja sitä paitsi kaikki oli jo valmiiksi paskana.
Mutta eihän tätä voi tehdä koska se kasvojen menetys jne. Sitten likasankokin jäisi yksin ja johonkin meidän on vähän kostonhimoa purettava niin mikäs sen parempi kuin valkovenäjä, putlerikin voi syyttää heitä kun ei tullutkaan jeesaamaan.
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Likasanko kaatuu tän paskan mukana.
Ja palli jo heiluu, jos se apujoukkojen lähettämättäjättäminen pitää paikkansa.

Valko-Venäjä voikin lopulta olla tän reissun harvoja voittajia.
 
Oisko kuukauden sisään poikkeusolot ja suunta neukkulameininkiin ja kymmeniä tuhansia ihmisiä siperiaan, tai sitten putin syrjäytetään, sovitaan rauha ja anellaan länttä poistamaan pakotteet. Toivon itse jälkimmäistä.
 
rooster1 sanoi:
Mä ihmettelen niitä ketkä on niin hysteerisenä tästä sodasta ja kertoo ettei saa öisin nukuttua yms.
Siis voi vittu jos yleensä joku asia ahdistaa niin eikö se helpota ettei koko ajan murehdi sitä 😁
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Ja näitähän on paljon.
Jossain oli että 30000 kriisipuhelua tullut kun jengi ahdistunut asiasta.
 

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