Key Details of the 2019 RAND War Game
The 2019 war game was designed to explore the
strategic feasibility of
NATO’s collective defense against a hypothetical Russian invasion of the Baltic states, with a particular focus on
Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital. The war game’s findings were notable for several reasons and helped highlight the challenges NATO would face in defending its eastern flank. Here's a breakdown of what the exercise entailed and its key findings:
1.
- The war game scenario revolved around a Russian invasion of Lithuania as part of a larger campaign to undermine NATO’s credibility and reassert Russian influence in the region. The Russian forces would advance quickly through Belarus into the Baltic states, aiming to capture Vilnius and potentially other key cities.
- The objective was to test whether NATO could mobilize quickly enough to defend Lithuania and the other Baltic states, which are geographically vulnerable due to their proximity to Russia and the Kaliningrad exclave, a heavily militarized Russian territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.
2.
- One of the critical findings from the RAND war game was NATO’s slow response. In the simulation, Russian forces were able to advance into Lithuania and capture Vilnius before NATO forces could effectively mobilize and reach the region.
- NATO reinforcements from Western Europe would be delayed due to the distance, the lack of pre-positioned equipment, and logistical challenges. This was exacerbated by the fact that NATO’s forces in Eastern Europe were relatively small and not equipped for a full-scale defense against a large, mechanized Russian military offensive.
- Russian air superiority and the use of hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, were also factors that contributed to NATO's difficulty in responding swiftly.
3.
- Another major aspect of the war game was the consideration of nuclear escalation. As Russian forces closed in on Vilnius and other strategic locations in the Baltics, NATO faced a dilemma: whether to use its nuclear deterrent to stop further Russian advances.
- The RAND analysis suggested that the possibility of nuclear escalation would be a major concern in any conflict involving Russia and NATO. With both sides possessing significant nuclear arsenals, the situation could quickly escalate from conventional warfare to a nuclear confrontation, especially if NATO appeared to be on the verge of losing the conflict.
- Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows for the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict, was a key concern. This would raise the stakes dramatically for NATO and could force it into difficult decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons.
4.
- NATO would face significant logistical issues in reinforcing the Baltics, especially in a time-sensitive situation where Russia was able to establish a fast-moving offensive. The game highlighted the need for NATO to pre-position more equipment and improve infrastructure for rapid mobilization in the region.
- The reliance on the Suwalki Gap, the narrow land corridor between Belarus and the Russian Kaliningrad exclave, was also a point of vulnerability for NATO. In the war game, Russian forces could quickly cut off this corridor, isolating the Baltic states and making it harder for NATO forces to come to their aid.
5.
- The war game underscored the importance of NATO’s eastern flank, particularly the Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) units deployed in the Baltics. These units, consisting of multinational battle groups, were seen as crucial to the deterrence against Russian aggression, but the game revealed that they would be insufficient to stop a full-scale Russian attack on their own.
- The war game suggested that NATO would need to significantly increase its forward-deployed forces and strengthen regional defense capabilities to better protect the Baltic states from any future Russian aggression.
Key Takeaways and Implications
- Vulnerability of the Baltics: The war game highlighted that Lithuania and its neighbors, Estonia and Latvia, remain vulnerable to Russian military action, particularly in the initial stages of a conflict. This vulnerability comes from a combination of geographical proximity to Russia, a relatively small defensive footprint, and logistical challenges in reinforcing the region.
- Need for Speed and Coordination: The simulation made it clear that NATO’s ability to quickly mobilize forces from Western Europe to the Baltics would be a crucial factor in any potential conflict. The alliance would need to overcome logistical bottlenecks, such as transporting troops, equipment, and supplies, while also coordinating responses from different member states.
- Nuclear Escalation Risk: The possibility of nuclear escalation was a key theme, with the RAND war game highlighting the potential risks of any conventional conflict between NATO and Russia. Given that both sides have nuclear weapons, a conventional conflict in the Baltics could quickly spiral into something much more dangerous.
- Deterrence and Preparedness: The findings underscored the importance of maintaining a credible deterrent in the region, including the deployment of NATO forces, forward defense infrastructure, and air and missile defense systems. The exercise suggested that NATO must not only focus on defending the Baltics but also on preventing an initial Russian success by ensuring that its forces can respond rapidly and effectively.
- Strategic Recalibration: The RAND war game suggested that NATO might need to reassess its overall defense posture in Eastern Europe and consider strengthening its commitment to the Baltic defense, including greater forward-deployment of forces and improved anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems to prevent a Russian advance.
Conclusion
The
2019 RAND war game involving
Vilnius served as an important strategic exercise for NATO, shedding light on the vulnerabilities of the alliance in the face of a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic states. While it showed that NATO would eventually be able to mount a strong response, it also emphasized the need for better preparedness, faster mobilization, and a credible deterrence strategy to avoid being caught off-guard by a rapid Russian offensive.
The exercise underscored the ongoing importance of
NATO’s eastern defense and the urgency of ensuring that the alliance can effectively defend its members in the Baltics, particularly in light of the
geopolitical tensions with Russia that have only intensified since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the war in Ukraine.