I have kept quiet on the counteroffensive and this is by design. But I want to say this:The Russian troops at many parts of the frontline are getting pounded by tubed and rocket artillery, Storm Shadow, JDAMs etc. Sometimes tanks and IFVs join the fray. The long range strikes such as in Tokmak and Melitopol in the last hours are even more interesting. Most if not all of that "repelled" attacks Russians claim are in fact them surviving barrage after another one and having a chance to report them. In some limited cases Ukrainian forces launch probing attacks and even get through. There are already permanent liberated areas, but that is not the purpose of probing attacks. Those few videos which sometimes appear are almost all videos from Russian sources and obviously cherry-picked. But they are not impressive either. Yes, when an army advances or launches probing attacks there are inevitable losses. During D-Day allies lost 2000 men in the first hour. But the enemy loses far more and, more importantly, the enemy has already to react in a forced way.The main strike hasn't arrived, yet. It can arrive anywhere and anytime at the front, even areas which have not been intensively shelled. Btw. I'm still on track with my predictions. Russians, however, are currently burning down their limited (mobile) reserves which they have in order to deal with the current situation. Intelligence gathering plays an important role at this stage, too, without going into details.Overall what I see right now is what I would expect from an Ukrainian counteroffensive. Keep calm and wait for the events to unfold.
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