Syntyvyys on viimeaikoina laskenut jyrkästi Ruotsissa, mikä on Svenska Dagbladetin Emma Fransin mukaan linjassa kestävän kehityksen kanssa.
Dr. Mike Yeadon kommentoi:
"Researcher Emma Frans writes in Svenska Dagbladet that Statistics Sweden has announced that the total fertility rate - the number of children per woman - for 2023 was 1.45, the lowest figure ever in Sweden. In 2010 the fertility rate was as high as 1.98.
Emma Frans writes neither anything about the fact that the birth rate has fallen dramatically in both 2022 and 2023, ~24,700 fewer children born than expected, and that it correlates exactly in time with when the fertility of the childbearing part of the population could be affected by the covid vaccination. The writer also manages the feat of not mentioning the covid vaccine at all as a possible reason for the record low birth rate. Not seeing the gigantic elephant in the room is undeniably an achievement.
Emma Frans puts forward four hypotheses for low fertility: 1) family policy, 2) recession, 3) attitudes and norms in younger generations and 4) reduced confidence in the future. The first three can be dismissed because: 1) Sweden's family policy and the economic conditions for parents are among the most favourable in the world; 2) Sweden had a very good economy in 2021 and relatively low unemployment and no lockdown, and the reduction in the birth rate starts in January 2022; 3) attitudes and norms do not change overnight but over a much longer period of time and should therefore not result in an 8.6% and 12.9% reduction in the birth rate per 100,000 women aged 18-45 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and for the latter year the lowest fertility rate ever.
The fourth argument about reduced confidence in the future is also highly questionable. The economy in Sweden, as already mentioned, was relatively stable in 2021. In January 2022, the very mild omicron COVID-19 pandemic dominates and Denmark announces on 1 February that it no longer considers the C19 infection to be a public health hazard, which means that Sweden will relatively soon follow its neighbour's assessment. It is only on 24 February 2022, when Russia invades Ukraine, that one can suspect that Swedes' confidence is declining. However, it takes nine months for a child to be born, so if a decline in confidence in the future has affected the birth rate, it should only be visible in the monthly statistics for November, but the decline starts 10 months earlier, in January.
The conclusion of the article in SvD is curious. Is Emma Frans attempting to justify Sweden's low birth rate in the name of sustainability?
"And while lower birth rates regionally can have negative economic and social consequences, lower birth rates globally are an important step towards a sustainable future.""
KOMMENTAR. Barnafödandet i Sverige har sjunkit till en rekordlåg nivå. Men varför? Lågkonjunktur, bristande framtidstro och nya attityder till familjebildning är några svar.
www.svd.se
www.theguardian.com
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www.tuni.fi
