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The gasoline shortage in Russia is real, but the severity of the crisis has been subject to differing interpretations depending on the source.
What’s Actually Happening in Russia
• Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted at least 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries since August 2025, causing significant disruptions to fuel production.
• Gasoline shortages have been reported across multiple regions, especially in occupied Crimea, where 50% of gas stations reportedly halted gasoline sales.
• Rationing and price hikes are widespread: in some areas, customers are limited to 5 gallons, and prices have surged to over $4.50 per gallon—nearly double the official average from early September.
• Export bans have been imposed by the Kremlin to stabilize domestic supply, indicating that the government acknowledges the seriousness of the issue.
Is the Crisis Exaggerated?
Some analysts argue that the media headlines overstate the scale:
• A Carnegie Berlin Center researcher pointed out that claims of “38% refinery capacity loss” are misleading. Much of that capacity is typically idle or used for exports, not domestic consumption.
• Even with reduced refining capacity, Russia still produces more gasoline and diesel than it consumes, and emergency measures (like converting naphtha into gasoline) could cushion the impact.
Bottom Line
The shortage is not fabricated, but some headlines may amplify the drama. The situation is serious—especially in border regions and Crimea—but not yet catastrophic nationwide. The real test will be whether Ukraine sustains its refinery strikes and how Russia’s air defenses adapt.
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