John Mearsheimer on kirjoittanut pitkän, mutta hyvän analyysin Ukrainan sotaan johtaneista tapahtumista, sen sujumisesta ja mahdollisesta lopputuloksesta.
Suosittelen sen lukemista, jos pystyy edes hetkeksi tulemaan sieltä omasta kuplasta ulos. Asiat ovat selitetty hyvin ja seikkaperäisesti, faktoihin tukeutuen ja liitteitäkin on riittävästi väitteiden tueksi.
Mearsheimerin johtopäätökset, joista helppo olla samaa mieltä, kuten koko kirjoituksesta:
Conclusion
"It should be apparent by now that the Ukraine war is an enormous disaster that is unlikely to end anytime soon and when it does, the result will not be a lasting peace. A few words are in order about how the West ended up in this dreadful situation.
The conventional wisdom about the war’s origins is that Putin launched an unprovoked attack on 24 February 2022, which was motivated by his grand plan to create a greater Russia. Ukraine, it is said, was the first country he intended to conquer and annex, but not the last. As I have said on numerous occasions, there is no evidence to support this line of argument, and indeed there is considerable evidence that directly contradicts it.
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While there is no question Russia invaded Ukraine, the ultimate cause of the war was the West’s decision – and here we are talking mainly about the United States – to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. The key element in that strategy was bringing Ukraine into NATO, a move that not only Putin, but the entire Russian foreign policy establishment, saw as an existential threat that had to be eliminated.
It is often forgotten that numerous American and European policymakers and strategists opposed NATO expansion from the start because they understood that the Russians would see it as a threat, and that the policy would eventually lead to disaster. The list of opponents includes George Kennan, both President Clinton’s Secretary of Defense, William Perry, and his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General John Shalikashvili, Paul Nitze, Robert Gates, Robert McNamara, Richard Pipes, and Jack Matlock, just to name a few.
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At the NATO summit in Bucharest In April 2008, both French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposed President George W. Bush’s plan to bring Ukraine into the alliance. Merkel later said that her opposition was based on her belief that Putin would interpret it as a “declaration of war.”
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Of course, the opponents of NATO expansion were correct, but they lost the fight and NATO marched eastward, which eventually provoked the Russians to launch a preventive war. Had the United States and its allies not moved to bring Ukraine into NATO in April 2008, or had they been willing to accommodate Moscow’s security concerns after the Ukraine crisis broke out in February 2014, there probably would be no war in Ukraine today and its borders would look like they did when it gained its independence in 1991. The West made a colossal blunder, which it and many others are not done paying for."
PS: en noteeraa mitenkään aivottomia tunteen purkauksia.
This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions.
mearsheimer.substack.com
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www.reuters.com
www.hrw.org
No, kyllähän ryssä tuon ymmärtää.